02 / Match Analysis & Scouting

Theory applied to
matches analysed.

Each analysis states what the framework predicted, then reports what actually happened. Newest first — single matches, team reports, whole-tournament parses and player scouting reports in one list.

SCOUTING REPORTDaejeon Hana Citizen · domestic distributing No. 6 · 116 players screened

Han Chan-hee — the No. 6 for the days without Kim Bong-soo

116 Korean midfielders on the same two indices as Kim Bong-soo. Two came through without a shortfall; the closer to Kim is Han Chan-hee — risks included.

0.94 · 1.00distribution · recovery (Kim = 1.00)

116players screened

SCOUTING REPORTDaejeon Hana Citizen · foreign multi-role left forward · 130 players screened

Ante Rebić — one more Seo Jin-su type

130 players across five routes. Of the four with no shortfall, Rebić meets the most criteria and can be signed now without a fee — injuries and two poor seasons included.

6.11opponent-box touches / 90

130players screened

MATCH ANALYSISK League 1 2026 · R28 · Daejeon Hana Citizen 3–2 FC Anyang

Less of the Ball, More Arrivals

No goals with 71% of the ball, three with 55%. Twenty-one observations checked against the event data — and the comeback explained only with what both agree on.

71% → 55%possession, first half → second half

50% → 79%left-side final-third entry success

OPPOSITION RESPONSEK League 1 2026 · FC Seoul · 25 matches, 11 opponents

How the league learned to play FC Seoul

An attempt to sort Seoul's opponents into high, mid and low blocks that failed outright. What survives is a direction: 8 of 11 teams dropped their block, and Seoul's points went up anyway.

r = −0.280within-team, across rematches

8 of 11teams dropped their block

ATTACKING PHASEK League 1 2026 · FC Seoul · 25 matches, 34,518 events

Everyone gets the ball to the same place

Seoul and their opponents deliver into the same cell in front of goal at almost the same rate, for the same xG. Rank the 25 matches by it and the top ten are all wins.

72% / 69%Seoul vs opponents into zone 17

10-0-0top ten by xG per delivery

REVISIONK League 2 2026 · Suwon Samsung · 279 shot coordinates, 23 pass matrices

Cross → shot was half of it

A revision of my own report. After 279 shot coordinates and 23 pass matrices, three of my earlier conclusions did not survive.

279shot coordinates extracted

2cut points, not one

VISUAL DESIGN BRIEFK League 2 2026 · Suwon Samsung · 21 matches

You do not need more crosses

The club that crosses more than anyone in K League 2 ranks sixth for goals. Twelve figures narrow the leak to one phase and set out what to change in front of it.

12figures across eight acts

49.1%cross → shot (Europe 71.6%)

TOURNAMENT COMPARISONQatar 2022 × North America 2026 · 168 matches

Losing moved from volume to allocation

FIFA changed the ruler between the two tournaments, so the raw numbers go. The team that ran more lost in 2022; the team that pressed more lost in 2026.

81.8%2022 knockouts — the team that ran less won

11.5%2026 heaviest pressers, win rate

TEAM REPORTK League 2 2026 · Suwon Samsung · 20 matches

From cross to shot

League leaders with the best defence and the fewest goals of the top six. Against 96 Big 5 clubs the gap narrows to one phase — crosses that never become shots.

49.1%cross → shot (Europe 71.6%)

2.04crosses ÷ shots

MATCH REPORTAFC Asian Cup Qatar 2023 · Korea Republic 2-2 Jordan

Was it the penetration, or the pressing?

Two claims tested in order. Penetration halved and shots went up — what changed was not the runs in front but the pressing behind them.

164 → 81runs in behind

14 → 22shots

TACTICAL TRENDS REPORTFIFA World Cup 2026 · all 104 matches

The underdog does not lose.

The barren game model loses, not the underdog. All 104 matches and 208 team-matches of official FIFA post-match data, read back against variation theory.

0 / 15barren reactive, knockouts

88.9%productive reactive

MATCHFIFA World Cup 2026 · Group A