02 / What the data says

One club,
read all the way through.

A series that takes one club or one competition and reads it to the end using nothing but public data. Every source, every definition of mine, and every question the data could not answer is written into each piece.

K League 2 2026 · Gimhae FC · 26 matches, 216-match league pool

At Home, at 0-0

The largest points shortfall in the league, and all of it at home. While the score is level they allow more than anyone and create almost nothing — so they concede first, and have led for fewer minutes than any team.

−10.1points below expectation, largest in the league

2points from 11 home matches worth 11.2

K League 2 2026 · Ansan Greeners · 26 matches, 212-match league pool

After the Lead

The league's weakest side on performance scored first eleven times and won twice. Once ahead, they dropped deeper than anyone and faced the most shots. Twenty-five points dropped from leads, the most in the league.

0.73points a match after scoring first, league lowest

25points dropped from leads, most in the league

K League 2 2026 · Cheonan City FC · 26 matches, 212-match league pool

Same Football, Different Season

Eighteen points from the first 13 matches, no wins in the next 13 — with the same chances made and allowed. The goals conceded flipped in front of goal, right where the goalkeeper changed.

1.38 → 0.33points per match before and after R14

1.18 → 1.24expected points per match, unchanged

K League 2 2026 · Yongin FC · 25 matches, 212-match league pool

The Next Goal

Seventh on performance, thirteenth in the table. The goals add up; their order does not. Level, the next goal kept going the other way; behind, Yongin kept coming back. Twelve draws.

−9.1points below expected, 2nd-largest gap

36%next goals won when level, league lowest

K League 2 2026 · Paju Frontier FC · 25 matches, 212-match league pool

The Goals They Kept Out

The least possession in the league and plenty allowed, yet nine and a half goals fewer conceded than expected. The phases say they should concede more; the last yard, and one goalkeeper, say otherwise.

−9.5goals conceded below expected, league best

78.2%shots on target saved, league best

K League 2 2026 · Chungbuk Cheongju FC · 26 matches, 212-match league pool

Stoppable Goals

Second for possession, few chances allowed, and eleven goals more than expected conceded. Phase by phase the team holds up; the leak is in the last yard, and it turned wins into fourteen draws.

+11.0goals conceded above expected, league worst

52.9%shots on target saved, league lowest

K League 2 2026 · Seongnam FC · 25 matches, 212-match league pool

The Moment They Lead

Eleven of thirteen leads conceded in, the highest rate in the league. Top-half at level, Seongnam retreat deeper than anyone the moment they go ahead, and opponents restart in front of their goal.

11 / 13leads conceded in, league highest

−10.5defensive-action shift when ahead, deepest

K League 2 2026 · Gyeongnam FC · 25 matches, 212-match league pool

How Not to Lose

One defeat in 12 since their goalkeeper returned — with more chances conceded. Match status over phases shows what not losing really meant: falling behind less, and as many leads let go as defeats rescued.

1defeat in 12 since R15

6 / 3draws after scoring first / after conceding first

K League 2 2026 · Chungnam Asan · 25 matches, 212-match league pool

They Only Win at Home

The biggest home–away points gap in K League 2 — and better performances away. Chungnam Asan score when they win the ball back, not when they have it, and they give it away at home.

1.79 / 0.82points per match, home / away

+7.9regain-chain goals above xG, 1st

K League 2 2026 · Gimpo FC · 25 matches, 212-match league pool

Strongest at Home, Unable to Win There

The best home football in K League 2, and 11th for home points. Gimpo are not outplayed at home — the last cell in front of both goals goes wrong at once.

+0.61home non-penalty xG difference per match, 1st

1.10home points per match, 11th

K League 2 2026 · Busan IPark · 26 matches, 212-match league pool

Two Seasons in One

Top in July, sixth in September. One season split in two — about nine-tenths of the fall is luck turning, and one-tenth is real.

2.25 → 0.50points per match, first half → second half

+12.9first-half points above expected, league 1st

K League 2 2026 · Daegu FC · 26 matches, 212-match league pool

They Get In and Shoot — and So Does Everyone Else

When Daegu get in, they shoot; when opponents get in, so do they — the only club near the top on both rates. Hottest when ahead, hotter still after the hour.

29.4% / 29.6%final-third entries ending in a shot — Daegu 2nd, opponents league highest

25goals after the 60th minute, league 1st

K League 2 2026 · Seoul E-Land · 26 matches, 212-match league pool

They Get In, but They Cannot Shoot

Opponents reach Seoul E-Land’s final third and finish with a shot less often than against anyone. Nobody gets out of their own third better — and they are most ordinary when ahead.

22.3%opponent final-third entries ending in a shot, league lowest

67.2%build-ups reaching midfield, league 1st

K League 2 2026 · Suwon FC · 25 matches, 212-match league pool

They Reach Less, and Shoot the Most

The most goals in K League 2 from the 13th-most final-third entries. Once in, nobody shoots more often — and ahead, nobody allows less.

30.6%final-third entries ending in a shot, league 1st

13thfinal-third entries per 90, of 17

K League 1 2026 · Incheon United · 29 matches, 168-match league pool

They Give Away the Least, and Concede More

The fewest chances allowed in the league, second on expected goal difference, seventh in the table. The excess goals all came from shots nobody got to — not more of them, just more of them going in.

0.68open-play xG allowed per 90, league lowest

+6.9goals conceded above league-adjusted expectation

K League 1 2026 · Bucheon FC 1995 · 29 matches, 39,033 events

Once Caught, Never Ahead Again

Fourteen leads, seven wiped out, none regained. The table flatters them by 11 goals, the centre was never closed — short passes into it work as well as anyone’s — and Bucheon simply rarely play them.

14 → 7 → 0leads taken, wiped out, regained

−18.3 : −7expected and actual goal difference

K League 1 2026 · FC Anyang · 29 matches, 41,111 events

Where the Ball Stops

Expected difference −9.8, actual −10. Once in the final third they shoot more than the opposition — what is missing is how often they arrive, and it starts in one phase.

−9.8 : −10expected and actual goal difference

11.27 : 10.45shots per 100 final-third passes

K League 1 2026 · Gimcheon Sangmu · 29 matches, 41,879 events

Lost on Dead Balls

Open play 26:23, set pieces 2:13 — the whole of the −8 is the dead ball. Four explanations for it die under testing, including one of my own.

2 : 13set-piece goals, scored to conceded

p = 0.027conceded above expectation while leading

K League 1 2026 · Gimcheon Sangmu · the institution

A Football Club That Is Also an Army Unit

A squad picked by a military board, on a private soldier’s wage, turning over on dates the transfer window does not know about. The constraints, before the data.

0foreign players, every season since 2022

0transfers in or out, ever

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K League 1 2026 · Gimcheon Sangmu · written from the opposition's sideCOMPANION REPORT

How to Beat Gimcheon Sangmu

The same dataset, written as a pre-match briefing for whoever plays them next. Five ways in — and four plans the data rejects, including one of my own.

2.58 vs 1.42conceded vs expected per 90 while leading

6 / 0penalties conceded / won, worst in the league

K League 1 2026 · Daejeon Hana Citizen · 27 matches, 40,130 events

Nine Silences

Third in the league for entering the final third, sixth for shooting. All nine goalless matches fall before R19 — and the silence had already begun by the fifteenth minute.

0.059shots per final-third action, 11th of 12

0.67 vs 6.00left-side key passes, first 15 minutes

K League 1 2026 · Gwangju FC · score state controlled · league pool 110 matches, 158,043 events

No One at the End

Episode 7 pointed at the defenders. Control for score state and they turn out to be a symptom — what is actually missing is anyone at the end of the channel.

+0.06ppof the −4.6pp progression gap that distribution explains

20.1% vs 20.3%midfield progression while behind, Gwangju vs league

K League 1 2026 · Gwangju FC · 27 matches, 38,899 events