DLB → RFT Conversion

What it is

The share of defensive line-breaks (DLB) that lead to a final-third reception (RFT) within a few seconds — a measure of whether a Plan A transition carries all the way to the finish rather than stalling. Draft definition: (DLBs that lead to an RFT) / (total DLBs), with the connecting window still to be fixed (5s? same possession?). Measurable from basic video tagging; next step is establishing a benchmark from real matches.

Built from

Grounded in existing KPIs/data: DLB, RFT.

Development status

Draft — measurement method defined; benchmark and validation still to come.

2026 World Cup example

Approximate
The PMSRs give a match-total DLB-to-RFT ratio, not the timed, within-possession version this KPI actually specifies (see the timing caveat above). Read that ratio at face value anyway: split into quartiles across 208 team-matches, win rate runs 50.0% → 30.8% → 36.5% → 36.5% — not the clean upward staircase the theory predicts. The likely reason is mechanical: dominant teams generate huge RFT counts relative to DLB counts, which pulls the ratio down exactly when the team is playing well. This is an honest non-result, not a validation. Read the full report →