Expected Threat

What it measures

How much an on-ball action raises scoring probability by moving the ball to a more dangerous zone.

The question it answers

Where does progression actually create danger?

In the Variation framework

Expected Threat divides the pitch into zones and assigns each a probability of leading to a goal within the next few actions. Every pass or carry is then valued by the change in threat between its start and end zone. For the Variation framework it is the base currency: it lets a low-xT conditioning phase (Plan A−) and a high-xT spike (Plan A) be told apart in the data, and it is the input for the timing and sequencing KPIs in the Lab.