Valuing Actions (VAEP)

What it measures

Values every action by its effect on both scoring and conceding probability.

The question it answers

What is each action really worth, at both ends?

In the Variation framework

VAEP estimates, for every action, how much it changes the team's probability of scoring and of conceding in the near future — then nets the two. Unlike xT it credits defensive actions too, which matters for a philosophy that treats defence as option-removal rather than an afterthought.