Progressive Pass / Carry

What it measures

Passes and carries that move the ball meaningfully toward goal.

The question it answers

Who drives progression — and how?

In the Variation framework

Progressive passes and carries flag the actions that meaningfully advance the ball toward goal. Splitting progression by pass versus carry, and by player, reveals whether a team advances through structure or through individuals leaving their line — the raw material of mutation.

2026 World Cup example

Approximate
The PMSRs give a team-level ball-progression total, not a per-player or per-action breakdown, so this is a team-aggregate proxy rather than the full metric. Split into quartiles across 208 team-matches, win rate runs 28.6% → 36.0% → 32.8% → 61.4% — directionally supportive but with a mid-table dip, which is why it isn't presented as a clean staircase in the report. Read the full report →