Expected Possession Value

What it measures

The value of the current possession state before the next action is taken.

The question it answers

How valuable is this moment on the pitch?

In the Variation framework

EPV values the state of a possession — position, players, pressure — as a live expected-goals figure, before any action is chosen. Reading EPV across a sequence shows how a possession is being built, and where a variation suddenly lifts the value the opponent thought they had contained.