Defensive Line Break

What it measures

Actions that break through the opponent's defensive line.

The question it answers

Does build-up actually penetrate the block?

In the Variation framework

A Defensive Line Break is an action that plays through or past a line of the opponent's block. Counting them separates possession that circulates in front of the block from possession that genuinely penetrates it — the moment a variation converts into territory.

2026 World Cup example

Measured
Directly in the PMSRs. Across the 80 decided matches, the side ahead on defensive line breaks won 72.7% of the time (56/77) — the fourth-strongest of nine predictors tested, and Spain's clearest tell in the final: 22 line breaks against Argentina's 5 inside a 1-0 scoreline. Read the full report →