The Next Goal

On 1 March Yongin FC played the first match in the club's history, at home to Cheonan, in front of more than ten thousand people. It went like this — 28′ 0-1 36′ 1-1 50′ 1-2 82′ 2-2. Both Yongin goals were Gabriel penalties. They fell behind twice and came back twice. They never led.

The shape of that first match became the shape of the season. In the September table Yongin are 5W 12D 8L, 13th on 27 points. Their 12 draws are the second-most in the league. Head coach Yoon-kyum Choi's pre-season target was sixth.

Yet the performances are better than the table. Re-take every shot in the 24 matches with event data 20,000 times and they are worth 35.1 expected points; Yongin took 26. 1.46 expected points a match is the level of the 7th-placed team. The odd thing is that the goal totals are close to expectation: 30 scored from 30.7 xG, 32 conceded (own goals aside) from 28.3 expected.

If the goals add up but the points are nine short, what is left is when the goals went in. Expected points treat shots as independent — a goal at 0-0 and a goal at 0-1 count the same. On the pitch they do not. This piece first counts the "next goal", then splits each of the four phases by match status to see where it was decided.

I unrolled 24 matches minute by minute — when Yongin led, when it was level, when they trailed, and the moments the goals went in (R25 is left out for lack of event data).

Yongin spent 14% of their minutes ahead, 15th in the league; 57% level and 30% behind. They scored first 8 times and conceded first 13 times. After conceding first they took 7 points, 0.54 a match, 12th in the league. Rarely ahead, they rarely had a win to hold. So why were they not ahead more often? That comes down to where the next goal went at 0-0 and 1-1.

The gap between expected and actual points is −9.1, the 2nd-largest in the league. Re-taking the same shots 20,000 times, points this low or lower came up only 6% of the time.

Non-penalty xG difference is +0.03 a match, 9th in the league — right in the middle. They allow about what they create. And yet they are 13th.

A gap like this is usually put down to "finishing" or "the goalkeeper". It is neither. They scored as many as their xG (−0.7), and first-choice keeper Sungmin Hwang conceded 3.3 fewer than the placement expectation (7th of 20 league keepers). In the totals the leak is invisible. So I count the goals again, in time order.

I recounted the goals by match status. In the 1377 minutes Yongin spent level, they created 16.1 xG and scored 10. In the same time opponents created 14.4 xG and scored 18.

Of the 28 goals scored while level, 10 were Yongin's — 36%. The two teams' xG says 53%. A gap of 17 percentage points is the largest in the league. In goals, the goal difference while level is −9.6 against expectation, also the worst in the league. All season, at 0-0 and 1-1, the next goal went the other way.

Trailing was the opposite. In 719 minutes behind, 10.0 xG became 14 goals. Goal difference while trailing is +4.4 against expectation, 5th in the league. This is why the totals matched — the goals they did not score while level, they scored once behind. But the same goal is close to a win at 0-0 and close to a draw at 0-1. Most of the nine-point gap between expected and actual points comes from this order.

So in which phase were the level-score goals decided? I open attack, defensive block, transition and set pieces in turn, and split each by level, trailing and leading.

Yongin do not shoot much. 9.3 shots a match is 16th in the league; 31.0 final-third entries a match is 16th. The share of entries that end in a shot, 22.9%, is 15th.

When they do shoot, it is from good positions. Average xG per shot is 0.126, first in the league. Settled attacks produce 0.40 xG a match, 6th. So the total is mid-table — open-play xG 0.87 per 90, 9th. Gabriel and Hyunjun Suk share the goals, 6 each.

Split by match status, the picture divides. Settled attacks — those started with the ball — began 315 times while level, produced 4.8 xG and 1 goal. That is −3.8 against expectation, the worst in the league. The same settled attacks brought 4 goals from 2.9 xG when trailing (2nd in the league against expectation) and 2 from 2.0 when leading.

It was not for lack of chances. While level, Yongin reached the final third 26.0 times per 90, 15th in the league — few. But each of those attacks was worth 0.034 xG, 5th in the league. They went forward rarely and made good chances; those chances just would not go in at 0-0 and 1-1.

Yongin sit low. Their average defensive action height is 16th in the league. Opponents' build-up reaches the centre 67.5% of the time — the highest in the league.

They still hold firm up to the box. Opponents enter it 12.4 times a match (10th), take 10.9 shots (12th), and create 1.18 xG a match (11th). The volume allowed is ordinary. But opponents' open-play goals came in above expectation (+0.14 per 90, 4th in the league). This is where the "next goal" leaks.

Split by match status, opponents' settled attacks while level turned 4.9 xG into 6 goals. That is +1.1 against expectation, the 3rd-most in the league. While level, opponents' open-play xG was 0.79 per 90, the 6th-lowest in the league, yet their goals came at 1.05 per 90, the 3rd-highest. Little allowed, a lot conceded.

When ahead, the block drops even deeper. Opponents' build-up reached the final third 45.4% of the time (2nd in the league) and the centre 78.7% (1st). Yongin led for little time, and spent even that little time giving opponents the ball.

Yongin do not win the ball back much. 52.5 recoveries a match is the fewest in the league, and 2.9 in the opponent half is also the fewest. 81% of recoveries come in their own half (2nd).

And they do not shoot straight away from them. The share of recoveries ending in a shot within 10 seconds is 1.8%, the lowest in the league, and the average time from recovery to first shot, 42 seconds, is the 2nd-longest. This is not a team that breaks games open on the counter. One of the commonest routes to the next goal from a level score is narrow from the outset.

Split by match status, transitions are also decided while level. Level, Yongin's attacks after a regain numbered 739, producing 8.5 xG and 7 goals. In the same time, opponents' attacks after a regain turned 7.3 xG into 10 goals — +2.7 against expectation, the 3rd-most in the league.

When trailing it reversed: Yongin's attacks after a regain turned 3.4 xG into 5 goals. But in that time opponents got a shot away within 10 seconds of winning the ball 5.3% of the time, the highest in the league. Chasing the game leaves space behind.

Set pieces are where Yongin score above expectation. Non-penalty set-piece chains produced 4.0 xG and 7 goals. Set-piece goals per 90 rank 3rd in the league. By the match report, three goals came from corners (R9 · R20 in the 97th minute · R24). There were two penalties, both scored by Gabriel in the club's first match, R1. They conceded 4 from set pieces (4.5 expected) — as expected.

Split by match status, you can see when they came. Level: 2 goals from 2.2 xG — as expected. Trailing: 3 goals from 1.1 xG, +1.9 against expectation, first in the league. Leading: 2 from 0.7. Both penalties also came while trailing. Set pieces helped Yongin come back; they did not break the 0-0.

Across the season the four phases add up to a mid-table team. Few shots from good positions; a deep block that gives up the centre but an ordinary volume inside the box; no counter-attack; good set pieces. A team of that shape should have about the points of the 7th-placed side.

Take only the time spent level, though, and add up actual minus expected phase by phase, and the picture changes. The four open-play cells — settled attacks and attacks after a regain — sum to −9.2 goals. The two biggest are settled attacks on the scoring side (−3.8) and opponents' attacks after a regain on the conceding side (−2.7). The two set-piece cells sum to +0.1, close to zero. The rest of the −9.6 (−0.5) is goals that cannot be assigned to a chain, such as own goals.

In one line: at 0-0 and 1-1, Yongin did not put away the good chances they built with the ball, and conceded more than expected to opponents who had just won it back. Only after falling behind did set pieces, penalties and settled attacks bring them level.

I split the 12 draws three ways: 4 after falling behind, 5 after scoring first (including R25 against Suwon FC, which has no event data), and 3 goalless.

Came from behind — R1 Cheonan 2-2 · R14 Daegu 1-1 · R15 Gyeongnam 2-2 · R17 Chungbuk Cheongju 1-1. Add the R11 win at Ansan, turned around after conceding first (2-1, winner in the 91st minute). From the 13 matches in which they conceded first, they took 7 points.

Pegged back — R6 Jeonnam 2-2 · R12 Seoul E-Land 2-2 · R19 Gimpo 1-1 · R20 Cheonan 2-2, and R25 Suwon FC 1-1. At Seoul E-Land in R12 they went ahead again in the 93rd minute and conceded the equaliser in the 99th.

0-0 — R4 Hwaseong (xG 1.57 : 0.40) · R13 Chungnam Asan (xG 0.79 : 0.38) · R27 Gyeongnam (xG 0.49 : 0.45). Yongin had the better of the xG in all three.

These two faces are one story. Yongin find something when behind — xG per 90 is 1.26 trailing and 1.05 level. They create only a little more, yet the goals go in far more often. From the 75th minute on they scored 11 and conceded 7. But level or ahead, they could neither win the next goal nor keep it out.

I lined up the 24 matches with event data by non-penalty xG, splitting them into edge, even and outplayed at an xG difference of ±0.3.

In the 10 matches where Yongin had the edge, they went 5W 5D 0L. Never beaten, yet half of them drawn. The 5 they did not win (R4 Hwaseong 0-0 · R6 Jeonnam 2-2 · R13 Chungnam Asan 0-0 · R14 Daegu 1-1 · R20 Cheonan 2-2) are a large share of the lost points. Even: 0W 4D 3L from 7. Outplayed: 0W 2D 5L from 7.

1–5 are the order of goals, 6–8 where phase meets match status, 9–10 the surroundings.

Representative matches are chosen by this series' four rules — ① the match closest to the season average ② the most characteristic (shots per final-third entry) ③ result furthest ahead of process ④ process furthest ahead of result. The top pick for ③ was the same match as ①, so the next one is used.

① and ③ are matches in which Yongin scored first and early; those they won comfortably. ④ is the opposite — the next goal never came. Yongin's season was decided by the mix of the two.

Yongin are a mid-table team. They allow about what they create, score what they should, and concede a little more than they should. Yet they have 9 fewer points than expected. The gap came from the order of goals, not their number — the next goal went against them when level, and they came back from behind. That is how most of the 12 draws in the club's first season were made.

The remaining fixtures: R28 Jeonnam (Away, 10 Oct) · R29 Ansan (Home, 17 Oct) · R30 Chungbuk Cheongju (Away, 25 Oct) · R31 Seoul E-Land (Home, 31 Oct) · R32 Suwon Samsung (Away, 8 Nov) · R33 Seongnam (Away, 21 Nov) · R34 Paju (Home, 29 Nov). The last, R34, is at home to episode 24's Paju. Three things to watch.

• A way to break the 0-0 — shots within 10 seconds of a recovery are the league's lowest. Set pieces (7 goals) have been the most reliable route so far.
• The ten minutes after going ahead — they have drawn 5 times after scoring first. A team that leads rarely gets little practice at protecting a lead.
• Does the order even out? — 36% of the next goals when level is far from the expected 53%. Numbers like this often drift back towards expectation over time. If it does, Yongin's points should follow their performances (7th-place level).