Less of the Ball, More Arrivals — Daejeon 3–2 Anyang

How to read21 observations → 13 + 4 kept

Only what the video showed and the data confirmed

I watched the match first and wrote 21 tactical notes. Then I checked each one against the 1,253 raw events (coordinates · xG) from the K League Data Portal. Nothing here rests on observation alone, or on numbers alone — only on the points where the two meet.

Adopted

the data backs the observation as written

Narrowed

kept only within the range the data supports
e.g. "left-side build-up" → "second-half left-side build-up"

Dropped

4 + 1

the data points the other way, or the note is about players off the ball — all listed at the end

Each section carries an evidence grade — Adopted # Narrowed Data

About the video · The only footage I could get was the official YouTube highlights, which are cut around goals and shots — build-up and pressing barely survive. So the clips here come from an AI tactical simulator: official event coordinates joined in the order they were logged, with the player on the ball appearing when he receives it and fading when he releases it. Players off the ball are not drawn, because they are not in the record (no guesswork).

Match flowData

Two of the three open-play goals came from shots worth 0.06 xG or less

Mateus’s opener (xG 0.06) and Bobsin’s go-ahead goal (xG 0.04) were both low-probability shots. Daejeon’s xG edge (1.79 : 1.24) was built almost entirely after the break — 0.25 before it, 1.54 after.

Cumulative xG

Daejeon vs Anyang · match minute · dashed = goal (shot xG)

DaejeonAnyang

From event data; xG is the portal’s model. One Daejeon first-half shot and one Anyang second-half shot are missing from the events.

	DJ 1st	DJ 2nd	AY 1st	AY 2nd
Possession	71%	55%	29%	45%
Shots (on target)	5 (2)	8 (4)	2 (1)	6 (2)
xG	0.25	1.54	0.18	1.06
Goals	0	3	1	1

10'Mateus goal (assist Blaze) 0–1
47'Ju Min-kyu goal (assist Lee Myung-jae) 1–1
65'Bobsin goal 2–1
66'Lee Soon-min → Kim Bong-soo
70'Masa fouled → on-field review
75'Ju Min-kyu penalty 3–1
77'Jung Jae-hee · Masa → Seo Jin-su · Kim Jun-beom
84'Kim Jun-beom foul (straight after a corner)
86'Ailton penalty 3–2

Line-up and shapeAdopted #1

Kim Bong-soo started on the bench, and out of possession it was 4-4-2

This was one of only four matches Kim Bong-soo (24 starts in 28) did not start. Daejeon began with a Bobsin–Lee Soon-min double pivot. On paper it was 4-2-3-1, but without the ball Masa stepped up beside Ju Min-kyu to form a 4-4-2 mid-block — the listed shape and the real one were different.

Daejeon · first-half average touch positions

Anyang · first-half average touch positions

Observed · video

Masa–Ju Min-kyu front two in a 4-4-2 mid-block: Masa left, Ju Min-kyu right. Masa drops when Daejeon build up.

Checked · data

Masa X 61–72 · Y 27–33 / Ju Min-kyu X 75–89 · Y 54–57

Part 1 · First halfAdopted #2

Anyang did not press Daejeon’s build-up

AI tactical simulator · 04:37–05:33 — 15 Daejeon passes, 0 Anyang defensive actions — the counter at the bottom keeps the tally

Observed · video

Anyang sat in a mid-to-low block and barely engaged Daejeon’s build-up from the back.

Checked · data

Anyang first-half PPDA 26.8 — twice the season average of Daejeon’s opponents (13.4)

PPDA by 15-minute block

lower = more intense pressing · Anyang vs Daejeon

AnyangDaejeon

0–15

45.0

9.4

15–30

30.0

9.7

30–45+

16.0

4.8

45–60

35.0

8.2

60–75

23.0

6.0

75–90+

4.5

11.0

Each block holds only 1–10 defensive actions, so read it as a trend; the adopted figure is the first-half value. Season comparison: 27 matches (R1–R26, R28).

Daejeon had plenty of the ball. The problem was what came next.

Part 1 · First halfAdopted #3 · #4 · Narrowed

The build-up core changed shape around the half-hour

Without Kim Bong-soo, Daejeon reshaped their first line twice. For the first 20 minutes Bobsin dropped between the centre-backs to take over distribution (a salida lavolpiana); after 30 minutes right-back Kang Yun-seong tucked in to form an asymmetric back three and Bobsin moved a line higher.

Build-up core — average positions in three phases

Daejeon back four (teal line) · double pivot (dark dots) · zoomed to X 30–78

0–20 min Bobsin drops into the CB line

20–30 min transition

30 min+ asymmetric back three, Bobsin steps up

Average position = mean coordinate of each player’s on-ball events in that window.

Window	Observed · video	Checked · data	Grade
0–20 min	Bobsin joins the build-up from deep	Bobsin X 48 · Y 39 = left-centre at centre-back height; passes 20/20	Adopted #3
20–30 min	Bobsin pushes on, Lee Soon-min stays	Only 5 involvements — no call. After 30 min Bobsin X 61 > Lee Soon-min 55	Narrowed
30 min+	Right-back tucks in for a back three; Jung Jae-hee holds the width	Kang Yun-seong X 64→54 · Y 86→77, Lee Myung-jae X 56→65, Jung Jae-hee Y 85	Adopted #4

Part 1 · First half · 10′Adopted #5

One second after receiving on the left, eighteen seconds to a goal

AI tactical simulator · 09:01–09:19 — Kang Ji-hoon tackles Ludwigson a second after he receives → Knežević through the middle → Ailton cross → Mateus

Observed · video

Anton’s pass in was fine. Ludwigson received with his back to goal and neither Masa nor Lee Myung-jae was close to help. One pass then took out the double pivot, and nobody closed down the crosser.

Checked · data

Tackle one second after the completed pass → Knežević forward pass through the middle → Blaze → Ailton cross → lay-off → Mateus (xG 0.06). 18 seconds from the loss

	The two positions this moment exposed
A	At the end of the main attacking channel, the left, a ball received with the back to goal was lost within a second
B	One forward pass took out both midfielders of the double pivot — a midfield without Kim Bong-soo

One moment is not a conclusion. Part 3 goes back to both with season data and squad structure.

Part 2 · Second halfData

Less of the ball, but more of it arriving in the box

First half vs second half

1st half2nd half

Box-entry passessuccess rate

24%

38%

Left-side entriesfinal-third success

50%

79%

Ludwigsonshare in the half-space

17%

39%

Box entry = end X≥84, 20≤Y≤80. Final-third entry = start X<66 → end X≥66. Left = end Y<40.

Measure	1st	2nd	Reading
Possession	71%	55%	less of the ball
Shots (on target)	5 (2)	8 (4)	60% more shots
Completed box-entry passes	5 / 21	10 / 26	arrival rate ×1.6
Final-third entries — left	7 / 14	11 / 14	the left becomes the route
Final-third entries — right	12 / 16	3 / 5	the right worked better before the break
Ludwigson involvements	12	23	no longer isolated

The first-half problem was not possession but arrival. After the break Daejeon had less of the ball, sent it to one side — the left — and got into the box far more often.

Part 2 · Second halfNarrowed · 2nd half

Weight to the left — the first pass from Anton, Lee Myung-jae and Bobsin

Final-third entry passes

completed passes coloured · to the left teal / centre grey / right purple · failed passes faint

1st half · right 12/16 · left 7/14

2nd half · left 11/14 · right 3/5

Passes starting at X<66 and ending at X≥66. Top of the pitch = left of the attacking direction.

Observed · video

Anton, Lee Myung-jae and Bobsin take turns as the left-sided stopper and on the touchline, and their first forward pass is good.

Checked · data

Second-half left-side entries 11/14, six of them by Anton, Bobsin and Lee Myung-jae (two each). Both open-play goals start with Anton → Lee Myung-jae

Why it was narrowed · Before the break the right was more efficient (12/16, 75%) than the left (7/14). So "the left-side build-up is good" is kept only as the second-half solution.

Part 2 · Second halfAdopted #9 · Kang Ji-hoon part-adopted

When Ludwigson moved inside, Kang Ji-hoon followed — and both goals came beside him

After the break Ludwigson came in off the touchline into the half-space. Anyang right-back Kang Ji-hoon followed him inside, and in both goal sequences the right side of Anyang’s back four opened up behind him. Daejeon used that space twice — in the 47th minute Lee Myung-jae ran into the vacated flank; in the 65th Ludwigson ran into the half-space with Kang Ji-hoon behind him.

Ludwigson on-ball positions

shaded = half-spaces

1st half 12 involvements · half-space 17%

2nd half 23 involvements · half-space 39%

Lanes: Y 0–20 wide / 20–40 half-space / 40–60 centre (relative to the attacking direction).

Half-space share

17% → 39%

1st → 2nd half · involvements 12 → 23

Nearest Anyang player

Kang Ji-hoon 8/24

at Ludwigson’s touches, ±3 s · within 12 m
next highest: 3

Anyang PPDA 45–75′

35.0 · 23.0

the block waited
and one man followed

Part-adopted · Event data only records the moment someone touches the ball. Kang Ji-hoon leaving the line is not in the record, so it stays a video observation. Nor can the data separate man-marking from an ordinary right-back-versus-left-winger duel. So I say only that he "followed him in", and limit "no team press, one man stepping out" to 45–75 minutes (Anyang’s PPDA after 75′ was 4.5).

Part 2 · Second half · 47′ Ju Min-kyuAdopted #6

Pull them right, finish on the left

AI tactical simulator · 46:05–46:59 — Cho Seong-kwon regain → U-shaped circulation on the right → Lee Soon-min switch → Anton · Bobsin in the left wide lane → Lee Myung-jae cross → Ju Min-kyu

Observed · video

U-shaped build-up, Bobsin and Anton swapping. Lee Myung-jae overlaps into the flank Kang Ji-hoon left when he followed Ludwigson inside → unpressed cross → Ju Min-kyu.

Checked · data

Nine-pass circulation on the right → Lee Soon-min switch → Anton · Bobsin in the left wide lane → Lee Myung-jae cross (from Kang Ji-hoon’s zone). No Anyang defensive action after 46:36 → xG 0.30

Regain → goal

54 s

from Cho Seong-kwon’s regain

Completed passes

including one throw-in restart

The build-up variable

CB → flank

even centre-back Anton goes up to the touchline in the rotation

Part 2 · Second half · 65′ BobsinAdopted #8 · #9

First pass on the left → run in behind Kang Ji-hoon → second ball

AI tactical simulator · 63:55–64:27 — Anton regain → Lee Myung-jae 42 m → Ludwigson running into the half-space → clearance → Masa header → Bobsin from distance

Observed · video

Long ball from deep on the left → Ludwigson’s long run into the half-space with Kang Ji-hoon behind him → scuffed effort cleared → Bobsin strikes the second ball from distance.

Checked · data

Anton → Lee Myung-jae 42 m → Ludwigson receives between full-back and centre-back (no Anyang defensive action) → clearance → Masa wins the header → Bobsin (xG 0.04)

What the data added — the second ball was one Masa won in the air and knocked down. 32 seconds from regain to goal.

Part 2 · Second halfAdopted #7 · Narrowed

Daejeon pressed harder than usual — PPDA 8.4, their lowest since R17

AI tactical simulator · 52:51–53:09 — forced wide, then Lee Soon-min cuts out the pass back inside and goes straight forward

Observed · video

In the 54th minute Lee Soon-min steps up to press in midfield: push Anyang wide, then use the pass back inside as the trigger to go man-to-man.

Checked · data

53:03 Lee Soon-min wins a tackle at (62, 81) — right side of Anyang’s half

Daejeon PPDA by round

lower = more intense pressing · R28 = 8.4 (season 9.7)

8.4

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R27 (Bucheon) excluded — raw events missing from the portal.

Why it was narrowed · "Intensity rose from the mid-50s" rests on 15-minute blocks with only 3–5 defensive actions, and the second half alone (8.8) was actually less intense than the first (7.9). Kept at match level only.

Part 2 · Second half · 70′ penalty wonAdopted #10 · Narrowed

Kim Bong-soo stood in the same spot, but distributed differently

AI tactical simulator · 68:49–69:15 — Masa wins it → Kim Bong-soo cross → Ju Min-kyu second ball → Kim Bong-soo at the box edge → Masa fouled

	Lee Soon-min 45–66′	Kim Bong-soo 66′–
Average touch position	54, 53	52, 55
Passes (completed)	7 (6)	19 (17)
Median start X	58	66
Forward passes · passes per min	2 · 0.33	5 · 0.56

Observed · video

Kim Bong-soo crossed from the right and went straight into the fight for the second ball. Daejeon had the numbers in the box.

Checked · data

69:04 cross → Ju Min-kyu second ball → 8 s later Kim Bong-soo just outside the box (82, 54) → 69:15 Masa fouled

Why it was narrowed · I noted "Kim Bong-soo simply took over Lee Soon-min’s role". The position was the same; the distribution was not. So only the position is adopted, and the difference in distribution becomes evidence for Problem B in Part 3.

Part 2 · Second half · 84′ penalty concededAdopted #11

A late set-piece second ball cost a goal

AI tactical simulator · 82:06–83:13 — Anyang throw-in → corner → Lee Chang-geun punches → Kim Jun-beom fouls in the second-ball duel

Corner → foul in the box

4 s

83:09 corner → 83:13 Kim Jun-beom foul

Season goals conceded after 76′

35%

12 goals — and again here

Into the next match

Second-ball match-ups

check them including substitutes (recommendation 02)

Observed · video

A clumsy challenge from Kim Jun-beom, in the second-ball duel after the goalkeeper punched a corner.

Checked · data

83:09 Ailton corner → 83:10 Lee Chang-geun punch → 83:13 Kim Jun-beom foul (on Kim Bo-kyung) → 86′ Ailton penalty

Defensive transitionAdopted #12 · #13

The counter after losing the ball was shut down — 0.22 shots per 10 losses, lowest in 27 matches

Shots conceded within 20 s, per 10 ball losses — by round

R28 = 0.22 · other 26 matches average 0.91

0.22

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Loss = an opponent ball-winning event (tackle · interception · block · recovery · ground duel won). Whole match — the one first-half case is the 10th-minute goal.

Adopted observation	Observed → checked
#13 rest-defence	Daejeon stayed compact, so the distances to counter-press were there → 0.22 shots per 10 losses (other 26 matches 0.91)
#12 Anyang’s direct football	Blaze holding it up, quick play to the flanks → long-pass share 19% (Daejeon’s opponents average 13.6%)

Part 3 · Diagnosis · Problem A27-match season · squad structure

The left is the main route — and only one Seo Jin-su type can finish it

Not a verdict on one loss in the 10th minute. Four reasons overlap.

	Reason
01	The left is the main attacking route. 11/14 successful left-side entries after the break; both open-play goals start with Anton → Lee Myung-jae. The quality of the player at the end of that route decides the outcome.
02	Ludwigson — one wide role, falling output. Zero starts up front in the 4-4-2 phase. Shots/90 1.84 → 1.41 → 1.23 (down two years running) · goals + assists/90 0.60 → 0.26 → 0.37. The 10th-minute loss is one frame of a 0.34 ball-retention season.
03	The cost of pinning Seo Jin-su to one spot. He plays left, centre or up front. Fix him on the left and Daejeon lose the card that fills whichever gap opens.
04	Seo Jin-su alone cannot last a season. 1,446 minutes in 2026 (25 matches). Rotation needs a second player of the same type.

2026 season to date	Ludwigson	Seo Jin-su
Minutes	1,847 · 30 apps	1,446 · 25 apps
Ball retention /90	0.34	1.36
xG + xA /90	0.40	0.51
Touches in opp. box /90	3.90	5.41
Successful dribbles /90	0.44	1.24
Positions	LW · LM	ST · CM · LM · AM · LW
4-4-2 phase (R16–R23)	7 starts wide · 0 up front	wide + 4 as a striker

Conclusion · One more player of Seo Jin-su’s type. If someone else can take the left, Seo Jin-su can be used centrally and up front as well.

Part 3 · Diagnosis · Problem B27-match season · squad structure

Kim Bong-soo is the only distributing No. 6

#3 With Kim Bong-soo out of the XI, Bobsin dropped into the centre-back line to do the distributing
Narrowed After Kim Bong-soo came on, from the same spot: passes 7 → 19, median start X 58 → 66
#5 10th minute — one forward pass took out both midfielders of the double pivot

2026 minutes

Kim Bong-soo and his three partners

Kim B-s

2,500

Lee H-s

921

Lee S-m

968

Bobsin

894

Minutes R1–R28. Kim Bong-soo · Lee Hyun-sik · Lee Soon-min · Bobsin.

/90	Kim B-s	Lee S-m	Lee H-s	Bobsin
Passes	54.9	52.5	49.0	54.3
Completed forward passes	18.3	14.0	11.0	16.5
Forward pass accuracy	79.9%	77.1%	70.1%	69.7%
Ball recoveries	12.9	14.8	13.7	10.9

Kim Bong-soo has 24 starts in 28 and leads Daejeon’s midfielders in pass volume, completed forward passes and forward-pass accuracy. All three partners are under 1,000 minutes, and none combines distribution (Bobsin) with ball-winning (Lee Soon-min).

	With two distributing No. 6s	Evidence from R28
Cover	Distribution survives when Kim Bong-soo is out. Bobsin no longer has to drop into the centre-back line.	out of the XI → Bobsin distributes (#3)
Division of labour	Share the distributing and Kim Bong-soo can play a line higher — forward passes, arriving in the box after a cross.	70′ Kim Bong-soo cross → at the box edge 8 s later → penalty
A more flexible build-up core	The rotation Bobsin, Anton and Lee Myung-jae already run on the left appears in midfield too — more answers when the ball is there but not arriving.	6 of the 11 second-half left-side entries came from those three
Second balls	Two No. 6s who can also win the ball mean more bodies for second-ball duels.	65′ Masa header → Bobsin goal · 70′ Ju Min-kyu second ball → penalty

What is needed · Not a replacement for Kim Bong-soo, but a second distributing No. 6 to play alongside him. (The expected effects are inferred from R28 moments and season numbers; there is no sample of the two playing together.)

Part 3 · DiagnosisData

R28 repeated the season’s pattern — with two exceptions

Season pattern (27 matches)	In R28	Verdict
Second-half shots on target → goals conversion rises (19.7% → 35.7%)	completed box-entry passes 5/21 → 10/26	repeated
9 of the 12 extra second-half goals scored by substitutes	no substitute scored — sub Kim Bong-soo started the penalty move, sub Kim Jun-beom conceded one	exception
12 goals conceded after 76′ (35% of the total)	86′ set-piece penalty conceded	repeated
Lead lost in 5 matches (12 points dropped)	held on after 3–1 → 3–2	held
Conceded first in 12 matches: W2 D2 L8 (incl. R28)	came from behind to win	exception

A rare match turned by the starters rather than by goals from the bench. The "concede after 76 minutes" habit, though, showed up again.

The season’s first- vs second-half conversion difference has a Fisher exact p=0.055 — borderline, so I do not call it statistically significant.

Recommendationsnext match · next window

Two things for the next match, and two player types to look for

	Coaching	Basis
01	Switch the point of attack sooner. The right (75% entry success) built the circulation before the break; the left (79%) finished it after. Track entry success by block on the bench and bring the "circulate → switch" moment forward.	Narrowed (2nd-half left) · #6
02	Set-piece second balls after 76′. The 86th-minute goal came from a second-ball foul four seconds after the 84th-minute corner. Review second-ball match-ups, substitutes included.	#11 · season pattern

Foreign · versatile left-sided forward (A)	Benchmark
Ball retention (dribbles won + fouls won − losses)/90	Ludwigson 0.34 · Seo Jin-su 1.36
Box presence opp.-box touches/90 · xG+xA/90	Ludwigson 3.90 · Seo Jin-su 5.41
Structural fit wide · striker · No. 10	Seo Jin-su = three roles

Domestic · distributing No. 6 (B)	Benchmark
Distribution passes · completed forward · accuracy	Kim Bong-soo 54.9 · 18.3 · 79.9%
Ball-winning interceptions+blocks+recoveries+tackles won/90	Kim Bong-soo 12.9
Role ≤ 25% of passes in the attacking half · ≥ 40 passes/90	Kim Bong-soo 19.3%

Record4 dropped + 1 extra

Observations I did not adopt, and why

Observation (video)	Data	Verdict
Long balls to Ju Min-kyu and Ludwigson as twin targets, then fight for the second ball	the two won 0 of 6 aerial duels logged	contradicted
The far-side full-back tucks into the deep half-space to keep the distances	off-ball positions — not measurable from event data	untestable
Lee Myung-jae curls it from the deep left half-space to Ju Min-kyu in the right pocket	3 attempts, 1 success in the first half — too rare to call a pattern	too few
After the changes, Seo Jin-su right then left after 88′; Diogo in Ju Min-kyu’s spot	Seo Jin-su 2–4 events, Diogo 10 (Y 76 = right)	too few
(extra) Right-back stays for a 3-2 against a mid-block, pushes on for a 2-2 against a low block	block-height switching cannot be shown with events; only that Kang Yun-seong’s three second-ball recoveries in Anyang’s half were central or in the half-space	untestable

Dropped observations are not thrown away. They are the list of things to test next — with off-ball tagging or more matches.